Perhaps it is the way of political cycles but nine months into what was billed as a new era in American politics, Barack Obama is poised to fail his first electoral test as President.  Next week, Virginians are expected to vote overwhelmingly for Republican Bob McDonnell to be their next Governor.  Polls suggest that the bellwether state that gave Obama a decisive margin of victory over John McCain could give a similar advantage to McDonnell over Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds.  

Polls suggest that Bob McDonnell could win Virginia by ten percentage points

But is this all Obama’s fault?  After all, Deeds notably declined to call himself an Obama Democrat, instead saying he was a “Creigh Deeds Democrat”.  And the candidate has been less than inspiring during the campaign, stumbling on tax questions, essentially saying that he would, sort of, maybe, increase taxes to pay for new roads, but not really. 

Still, after winning big less than a year ago, Democrats expected to ride the wave of hope and change for a little longer.  Strategists banked on maintaining their advantage enough to eke out a win in a state that was taken by a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since 1964. 

The extent to which national politics impacts state elections is open to debate but is likely greater in a state like Virginia where Governors can only serve one term, removing opinions about the incumbent from the voting equation. 

With its dithering over Afghanistan, the White House is looking rudderless.  At the same time, proposed health care reforms are worrying many Americans.  The administration has already spent the earnings of America’s children.  Independents who were promised everything last November have seen enough in nine months to be supporting the Virginia Republican by two to one. 

Northern Virginia, a sprawling and wealthy suburb of Washington, DC that reliably votes Democrat at election time and accounts for over 40 per cent of the state’s population, has not even been energized by repeated personal attacks on McDonnell by the Democrat supporting Washington Post. 

But the main point for the nation as a whole is not the scale of the Democrat Party’s rapid decline with the electorate, but the impact the Virginia vote will have on Congress.  Next week’s outcome will hammer home to Democratic Congressmen their own electoral vulnerability in next November’s midterm elections.  Some may be inclined to step away from ObamaCare and big government to save their skins. 

Is the White House worried?  You bet.  Last week Deeds received a presidential pat on the back accompanied by a dagger to his heart.   As radio advertisements in Virginia belatedly broadcast the President’s support for Deeds, the White House was busy briefing reporters at the Washington Post that the candidate alone was to blame for the impending loss.  Three advisers were quoted off the record distancing the President from the expected outcome. 

With ten days to go before polling day, this briefing did nothing to help the beleaguered candidate, who was left to deny accusations that he had failed to coordinate his campaign with the White House. In contrast to the more general criticism that the President has been indecisive on major foreign policy decisions, it could be said that this move against Deeds was both premature and unnecessarily vicious. 

Serious public misgivings about Barack Obama’s policies are emerging as it has become clear that this new era in American politics, with its upside down priorities, is eerily reminiscent of ones that have gone before.

• Problems Grow With ObamaCare
• Manchester United To Win English Premier League
• Kagan Confirmation Will Stir Controversy
• The Great Environmentalist Conspiracy
• The Problem With WikiLeaks